城市边缘区乡村产业系统风险评估与韧性格局重构--以天津市西郊乡村地区为例

SYSTEMATIC RISK ASSESSMENT AND RESILIENT PATTERN RECONSTRUCTION OF RURAL INDUSTRY IN URBAN FRINGE AREAS:A CASE STUDY ON THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF TIANJIN CITY

当前,在城市外延扩张冲击下,城市边缘区乡村内生动力较弱、治理能力不足、设施供给错位、生态支撑水平下降等系统性风险制约了其产业发展。本研究结合系统功用性、稳定性、可持续性特征,综合建构乡村产业的系统风险评估方法,并解析系统风险空间聚类规律;进而基于演进韧性理论,从提升系统自适应性、自协调性、自组织性出发,提出以产业韧性内生培育为核心、以系统要素协同治理为保障的城市边缘区乡村产业的系统韧性格局重构策略,实现从"单一风险管理"走向"系统韧性治理",为城市边缘区乡村产业的系统风险长效治理和高质量发展转型提供有益借鉴。

In the context of globalization and urbanization,there are systemic risks in the development of rural industries in urban fringe areas,such as insufficient internal impetus,declining governance capacity,lagging livelihood security,and strained ecological security.Combined with the features of system function,stability,and sustainability,the paper establishes a systematic risk assessment method for rural industry and analyzes the spatial clustering law and causes of system risk.Then,based on the theory of evolutionary resilience,and from the perspective of improving the system’s self-adaptability,self-coordination and selforganization,a strategy of restructuring the system resilience pattern of rural industry in urban fringe area is proposed,with the endogenous cultivation of industrial resilience as the core and the coordinated governance of system elements as the guarantee.It is hoped to realize the transformation from"single risk management"to"system resilience cultivation"and to provide beneficial reference for the study of long-term systematic risk management and highquality development mode of rural industry in urban fringe areas.