城市客运交通电动化碳减排效益和碳达峰目标——以上海市为例

Carbon Reduction Benefits and Carbon Peak Goals of Urban Passenger Transportation Electrification:A Case Study of Shanghai

城市客运交通是化石能源消耗和温室气体排放的重要领域。科学合理地设定能源结构电动化目标和配套政策,对于客运交通体系积极有序向双碳目标过渡具有重要意义。以上海城市客运交通工具(含公共交通、个体机动交通)为对象,以交通运行阶段能源消耗产生的碳排放(电力消费考虑发电端间接排放)为测算口径,基于行业统计、交通活动量等多元数据,对交通结构优化和能源结构调整的碳减排效益进行量化测算。以近中期实现碳达峰为约束,重点计算三种情景对小客车电动化转型渗透率的目标要求。最后,强调在城镇化、机动化尚未充分完成的背景下推进碳达峰,需要坚持能源结构调整和交通结构优化并重的结构性减碳策略。在实施层面,要强化产业、能源、交通政策的统筹衔接。

Urban passenger transportation is an important field of fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.Scientifically and rationally setting the goal and supporting policies of electrification of energy structure is of great significance for the positive and orderly transition of the passenger transportation system to the carbon neutrality goals.Taking Shanghai urban passenger transportation tools(including public transportation and individual motorized transportation)as the object,based on the multi-dimensional data such as industry statistics and traffic activity volume,this paper calculates the carbon reduction benefits of transportation structure optimization and energy structure adjustment which takes the carbon emissions generated from energy consumption in the transportation operation stages(indirect emissions at the power generation is considered for electricity)as the measurement caliber.Taking the realization of carbon peak in the near and medium-term as the constraint,the paper focuses on the target requirements of three scenarios for the penetration rate of passenger car electrification transformation.Finally,the paper emphasizes the structural carbon reduction strategy of giving equal priority to energy structure adjustment and transportation structure optimization in the context of the incomplete completion urbanization and motorization.At the implementation level,the coordination and connection of industrial,energy,and transportation policies should be strengthened.