提升PPP政府债务风险评价质量研究

Study On Evaluation Quality of PPP Government Debt Risk

PPP政府债务风险水平测度是当前尚未解决的难题,直接影响政府债务管理质量。基于宏观和微观结合视角,根据风险能量释放理论构建了PPP政府债务风险评价系统动力学模型,揭示了PPP政府债务风险能量传递机理和路径,并实证分析了PPP财务风险能量的释放过程、释放结果及其对PPP政府债务风险系统损益的作用,从而评价PPP政府债务风险水平。研究结果表明:销售收入、政府补贴、政府出资与PPP财务风险之间呈反向关系,而经营成本、贷款利率、所得税税率呈正向关系,且各因素以相同比例变动时对项目的有利情况比对不利情况更敏感;政府利润分配和PPP项目税收的减少,以及政府出资和政府补贴的增加会导致地方政府债务风险显著增大。论文的边际贡献在于从宏微观结合角度为PPP政府债务风险全生命周期的动态评价提供一套切实可行的方法,为防范其风险提供有效工具和决策依据,进而提升PPP政府债务风险评价质量,提高政府债务质量管理水平。

The measurement of PPP government debt risk level is still unsolved problems,which directly affects the quality of government debt management.Based on the combination of macro and micro perspectives and the theory of risk energy release,this thesis constructs a dynamic model of PPP government debt risk assessment system.The thesis reveals the mechanism and path of PPP government debt risk energy transfer,and empirically analyzes the release process,release results of PPP financial risk energy bubble and its effect on the profit and loss of PPP government debt risk system,so as to evaluate the level of PPP government debt.The results show that there is a reverse relationship among sales revenue,government subsidies,government investment and PPP financial risk.There is a positive relationship among operating cost,loan interest rate,income tax rate and PPP financial risk.When each factor changes in the same proportion,it is more sensitive to the favorable situation of the project than the unfavorable situation.The reduction of government profit distribution and PPP project tax,as well as the increase of government investment and government subsidy,will significantly increase the risk of local government debt.The marginal contribution of this thesis is to provide a set of feasible methods for the life cycle dynamic evaluation of PPP government debt risk from the perspective of macro and micro combination,and provide an effective tool and decision-making basis for the dynamic observation and prevention of PPP government debt risk,which is conducive to improving the quality of PPP government debt risk assessment and the level of government debt quality management.