地方政府债务的经济增长效应研究——基于数量与质量的双重视角

Research on the Economic Growth Effect of Local Government Debt-Based on the dual perspective of quantity and quality

首先分析地方政府举债行为对经济增长数量和质量影响的机制,在此基础上采用投入导向的DDF-SML指数计算的TFP增长率来衡量经济增长质量,并选取中国30个省份2010-2016年的面板数据,运用联立方程组模型,从经济增长数量和质量的双重视角出发,全面考察地方政府债务的经济增长效应。结论表明,在样本期内,地方政府债务规模扩大,增加了经济增长数量和速度,但也对地区技术进步产生负面影响,不利于经济增长质量的提升。进一步地,地方政府债务对经济增长数量的促进效应既存在于东部,也存在于西部,但地方政府债务对经济增长质量的抑制作用仅存在于东部,在西部区域未得到验证。因此,在制定地方政府债务管理制度时,既要考虑地方政府债务对经济增长数量的影响,还要考虑地方政府债务对经济增长质量的影响,以便更有效地判断地方政府债务的宏观风险。

This paper first analyzes the mechanism of how local government debt affects the quantity and quality of economic growth and then uses the input-oriented DDF-SML index to measure the quality of economic growth.From the dual perspective of the quantity and quality of economic growth,we employ the simultaneous equations model to comprehensively examine the economic growth effects of local government debt using panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2016.The conclusion shows that the scale expansion of local government debt increases the amount and speed of economic growth,but at the same time it has a negative impact on regional technological progress and the quality of economic growth during the sample period.Furthermore,the promoting effect of local government debt on the quantity of economic growth exists in both the east and the west,but the restraining effect of local government debt on the quality of economic growth only exists in the east and has not been verified in the western region.Therefore,we must consider not only the impact of local government debt on the amount of economic growth but the impact of local government debt on the quality of economic growth in order to more effectively judge the macro risks of local government debt in the process of formulating the debt management system.