基于复杂网络的多元线性回归灰色预测对南京地铁客流量预测分析

Prediction and analysis of Nanjing metro passenger flow based on complex network multi linear regression grey prediction

针对单一变量分析的局限性,为了在一般灰色预测分析方法的基础上获取南京地铁客流量数据,基于复杂网络的多元线性回归灰色预测对南京地铁客流量预测分析。利用复杂网络的网络特征指标,采用多元线性回归灰色预测方法,分析了地铁复杂网络节点数量,构建了地铁复杂网络聚类系数的多变量预测体系,综合预测了南京地铁客流量。实验结果表明,该方法能够更全面客观地反映实际地铁客流情况,预测分析结果更接近实际情况,也为地铁线路和车站的规划提供了优化方向。

In view of the limitation of single variable analysis,in order to obtain the passenger flow data of Nanjing Metro based on the general grey prediction analysis method,the multiple linear regression grey prediction based on complex network is used to predict and analyze the passenger flow of Nanjing Metro.Based on the network characteristic index of complex network,this paper adopts the multiple linear regression grey prediction method to analyze the number of subway complex network nodes,constructs the multivariable prediction system of subway complex network clustering coefficient,and comprehensively forecasts the passenger flow of Nanjing Metro.The experimental results show that this method can reflect the actual subway passenger flow more comprehensively and objectively,and the prediction results are closer to the actual situation,which also provides the direction for the subway line and station planning to be optimized.