基于大数据档案的人口老龄化对居民消费的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Residents’Consumption Based on Big Data Archives

基于中国2000—2017年31个省际大数据档案,构建面板平滑转移回归模型(PSTR模型),分析研究人口老龄化水平与居民消费两者关系。研究结果显示,人口老龄化与居民消费的之间存在非线性关系,适合采用非线性最小二乘法进行参数估计;人口老龄化系数与居民消费两者间呈现双重门槛效应,人口老龄化对居民消费的影响存在三种作用机制,人口老龄化对居民消费增长总体呈现负向影响。

Based on the big data files of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,apanel smooth transition regression model(PSTR model)was constructed to analyze the relationship between the level of population aging and household consumption.The results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between population aging and residents’consumption,and it is suitable to use nonlinear least square method for parameter estimation.There is a double threshold effect between the coefficient of population aging and residents’consumption.There are three mechanisms for the impact of population aging on residents’consumption.Population aging has a negative impact on the growth of residents’consumption.