近53 a新疆水分盈亏量时空变化特征

Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the water budget in Xinjiang during the latest 53 years

采用新疆58个气象站1965—2017年逐日气象资料,通过Penman-Monteith(P-M)模型计算潜在蒸散,并结合降水量求得水分盈亏量;应用Mann-Kendall(M-K)突变检验、小波分析和Pearson相关分析方法,分析了新疆水分盈亏量时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)近53 a来新疆地区水分盈亏量年际变化总体呈增加趋势,天山以南水分盈亏量增加速率最大,其次是天山以北,天山区最小,全疆平均增加速率为72.28 mm·(10a)^(-1);季节上水分盈亏量的变化:夏季>春季>秋季>冬季,夏季线性变化速率最大,冬季最小。(2)空间上各季节水分亏损最大值主要出现在吐鲁番盆地及周边、哈密地区以及巴音郭楞蒙古自治州北部地区,最小值主要位于伊犁河谷及阿勒泰地区。变化趋势上大部分地区年水分盈亏量都处于增加趋势,减小趋势主要位于天山以北及塔里木盆地部分地区。(3)新疆平均水分盈亏量时序数据1985年发生了一次突变,除天山以北地区外,其余地区2000年以来水分盈亏量下降趋势明显,并且以28 a的时间周期为第一主周期发生变化。

Based on the daily meteorological data of 58 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1965 to 2017,the daily potential evapotranspiration was calculated using a Penman-Monteith(P-M)model,after which the water budget was calculated by combining precipitation data.Mann-Kendall(M-K)mutation test,wavelet analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were used to analyze temporal and spatial variation characteristics and factors influencing water content in Xinjiang.We found:(1)In the last 53 years,the interannual variation in the water budget in Xinjiang showed an overall increasing trend.The maximum increasing tendency rate of water budget was 93.69 mm·(10a)^(-1) in the south of the Tianshan Mountains,followed by a minimum 34.36 mm·(10a)^(-1) in the north of the Tianshan Mountains,where the average increasing tendency rate was 72.28 mm·(10a)^(-1) in the whole Xinjiang.Seasonal variation in the water budget was as follows:summer>spring>autumn>winter.The linear variation rate in summer was a maximum 18.82 mm·(10a)^(-1) and minimum 2.64 mm·(10a)^(-1) in winter.(2)Spatially,the maximum moisture loss for each season mainly occured in the surrounding areas of the Turpan Basin,Hami region and the northern area of Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture.The minimum value is mainly located in the Yili River Valley and Aletai area.Annua water surplus and deficist are increasing in most areas and decreasing in the north of Tianshan Mountains and some areas of the Tarim Basin.(3)There was a sudden change in the time series data for mean water surplus and deficit in Xinjiang around 1985 year.Since 2000,except for the area north of the Tianshan Mountains,the water surplus and deficit in other areas showed a clear decreasing trend,with a time period of 28 years as the first main period.