基于随机Petri网的多部门协同农业抗旱应急处置流程建模——以内蒙古巴彦淖尔市为例

Modeling of Multi-department Collaborative Emergency Response Process of Agricultural Drought Based on Stochastic Petri Net:A Case Study of Bayannur,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

随着全球气候变暖,干旱灾害发生频次和强度增加,严重威胁到农业生产。如何保证农业抗旱应急处置流程的顺畅高效,提高农业抗旱应急处置效率,是减少农业生产损失的关键。首先,从信息流的角度,基于OODA环分析了农业抗旱应急管理流程的各个阶段。针对农业旱灾及应急抗旱的特点,建立了多部门协同的农业抗旱应急处置流程,基于随机Petri网构建了农业抗旱应急处置流程仿真模型,通过同构马尔科夫链分析该系统性能,进一步提出关键环节及处置时间的确定方法。最后,以内蒙古巴彦淖尔市为例,分析农业抗旱应急处置流程的效率,确定关键环节及其处置时间。结果表明:①提出的多部门协同农业抗旱应急处置流程可以缩短应急时间。以巴彦淖尔市2018年的抗旱应急为例,抗旱时间从半个多月缩短为11.5天左右。在各环节中,信息发布是容易造成信息堵塞的环节,寻找应急水源是最耗时的环节。②提高关键环节的应急处置效率,将进一步提高应急抗旱的效率。对抗旱应急总时间影响最大的环节——启动应急预案,是关键环节,将该环节的平均实施时间缩短为1/15天,可以将抗旱时间进一步缩短2.5天。

With the global warming,the frequency and intensity of drought,disasters increase,which seriously threatens agricultural production.Therefore,how to ensure the smooth and efficiency of agricultural drought,emergency disposal process is a crucial problem in order to reduce the disaster loss of agricultural production.In this paper,from a perspective view of information flow,the agricultural drought,emergency management,process is analyzed based on OODA(observe,orient.,decide,and act).According to the characteristics of agricultural drought,and emergency response,a mult.i-depart.ment.collaborative emergency response process of agricultural drought,is established.Based on the SPN(stochastic petri net.),the simulation model of agricultural drought,emergency response process is constructed.The performance of the system is analyzed by using the isomorphic Markov chain and the method of finding the key link and determining its disposal time is proposed.Finally,taking Bayannur of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as an example,the efficiency of the agricultural drought,emergency response process is analyzed,and the key links and their response time are determined.The results show that,the mult.i-depart.ment.collaborative emergency response process of agricultural drought,can shorten the emergency time.The drought,emergency response time in Bayannur in 2018 is shortened from more than haff a month to about.11.5 days.Among all links,information release is easy to cause information jam,and finding emergency water source is the most,time-consuming link.Besides,improving the disposal efficiency of the key link will further improve the efficiency of drought,emergency response.Starting the emergency plan is the key link which has the greatest,impact,on the total time of drought,response.Reducing the average implementation time of this link to 1/15 day can further shorten the drought,relief time by 2.5 days.