“三年化疫”说质疑

Questioning “epidemic at three-year intervals” theory

《素问·遗篇·刺法论》提出"三年化疫"说,明代吴崑对此提出了明确的批判。但从2003年发生非典型肺炎(SARS)起,到2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行,中医界也有一些学者借"三年化疫"说理。综合有关"三年化疫"说现有的研究结果,从何以"三年化疫"的各家解读,分析其理论内在的逻辑矛盾,以及相关证实性研究,得出了证伪性的结论,以科学理论同经验事实的一致性以及科学理论内部逻辑的自洽性为判定标准,指出"三年化疫"说极有可能是古人基于模式数"三"所提出,而不是一种科学理论,中医学人不必以此论述疫病的流行以及防治问题。

The theory of "epidemic at three-year intervals" in Su Wen.Yi Pian.Ci Fa Lun was explicitly criticized by Wu Kun in Ming Dynasty.However,some TCM scholars studied severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2020 using the theory.This article analyzes the inherent logical contradictions of the theory based on relevant confirmatory researches and the interpretations of the theory in existing studies.Falsifying conclusion is drawn with two criteria:consistency between scientific theories and empirical facts as well as self-consistency of inherent logic of scientific theories.This article argues that instead of being a scientific theory,the theory of "epidemic at three-year intervals",most likely,was proposed based on "three",the Chinese ancient model number.Therefore,there is no necessity to discuss the outbreak,prevention or control of epidemics on the basis of the theory.