南北协调发展现状、趋势及风险防范

Research on the Current Situation,Trend and Risk Prevention of Regional Coordinated Development Between Southern and Northern China

结合区域协调发展的丰富内涵,构建包括综合经济、创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享6个维度40个评价指标,发现21世纪以来,南北协调发展经历了调整缓和(2000—2008年)和差距扩大(2009年以后)两个阶段,当前南北差距扩大主要表现在综合经济和协调发展领域,是中国经济转型过程中出现的正常的阶段性现象,并非全方位不协调。"十四五"时期,南北经济协调程度可能会继续下降,进出口贸易、就业、教育投入、节能减碳等领域的差距也有扩大倾向,需要重点防范由此带来的放大陷入"中等收入陷阱"风险、制约新发展格局构建、引发就业和民生问题、诱发区域性金融风险、增加欠发达地区振兴发展难度、引发边疆和国防风险等。对此,要聚焦差距有扩大倾向的重点领域,通过优化国土空间布局、壮大实体经济根基、补齐开放合作短板、强化生态环境保护、密切区域合作互助等,多措并举、集中发力,不断释放北方地区的发展潜力,确保南北协调发展。

Combining the rich connotation of regional coordinated development,this paper constructs 40 evaluation indicators in 6 dimensions including comprehensive economy,innovative,coordinated,green,open and shared development.We found that since the new century,the regional coordinated development between southern and northern China has experienced relative stability stage(2000-2008). and gap expansion stage(since 2009).The current expansion of the southern and northern gap is mainly manifested in the field of comprehensive economy and coordinated development which is a normal stage phenomenon in the process of China’s economic transformation,rather than an all-round uncoordinated phenomenon.During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,the degree of economic coordination between the southern and northern China may continue to decline,and the gap in the fields of international trade,employment,education investment,energy conservation and carbon reduction also tends to expand.It is necessary to focus on preventing the resulting enlargement and falling into the "middle income trap" risks,restrict the construction of a new development pattern,trigger employment and people’s livelihood issues,induce regional financial risks,increase the difficulty of revitalization and development in underdeveloped areas,and trigger border and national defense risks.In this regard,it is necessary to pay attention to key areas where the gap tends to widen.By optimizing the spatial layout of the country,strengthening the foundation of the real economy,filling the shortcomings of open cooperation,strengthening ecological environmental protection,and intensifying regional cooperation and mutual assistance,we must take multiple measures and focus our efforts.Continuously release the development potential of the northern region and ensure the regional coordinated development between southern and northern China.