城际铁路旅客购票选择行为的异质性研究

A Heterogeneity Analysis of Passenger Ticket-Booking Choices for Intercity Railways

本文以广珠城际铁路为例,设计了潜在类别模型对旅客进行分类,采用多项Logit模型研究不同票价浮动策略下各类旅客的购票时间选择.结果表明,各类旅客需求的购票时间概率分布具有明显差异性,且受票额紧张程度的影响;收入越高和出行频率越高的旅客倾向于提前更短的时间购票,受票价浮动的影响越小,公费出行降低了旅客对票价的敏感性.本文研究可为铁路部门制定满足多样化旅客需求的票价浮动策略提供决策支持.

Taking Guangzhou-Zhuhai Intercity Railway as an example,this paper designs a potential category model to classify passengers,and uses multiple Logit models to study the choice of ticket purchasing time for different types of passengers under different ticket floating strategies.The results show that the probability distribution of ticket purchase time of different passenger demands is obviously different,and it is affected by the strain of ticket amount.Passengers with higher incomes and higher travel frequencies tend to purchase tickets in shorter time in advance,and are less affected by ticket price fluctuations.Travel on public funds reduces the sensitivity of passengers to ticket price.This study can provide decision support for the railway authorities to make a fare floating strategy to meet the diversified passenger demands.