跨越中等收入的数字经济动能转换:理论与实证

Conversion of the Digital Economic Growth Driving Force to Overcome the Middle-income Trap:A Theory and Empirical Research

一国或经济体在中等收入阶段需转换经济增长动能成为理论共识,但对数字经济动能转换的机制尚缺乏深入探讨。本文以基于技术效率思想的两化融合刻画数字经济,构建数字经济动能转换的理论模型,研究表明:在低收入低融合和高收入高融合情形下,两化融合水平对经济增长的影响是显著的,但在中等收入中融合情形下,两化融合水平对经济增长的影响不显著,说明经济体在中等收入阶段增长动能会出现结构失灵现象。本文基于55个国家或经济体的面板数据,实证显示存在这种动能结构失灵现象。据此,提出中等收入陷阱发生机制的“技术效率转轨”假说,并构建数字经济动能转换理论,认为中国在中等收入阶段需要从以信息化带动路径为主的技术效率转变为工业化促进路径与信息化带动路径并行的技术效率,通过实施数字化转型与创新并举、应用性创新与探索性创新互补的复合式创新战略来跨越中等收入陷阱。本研究为数字经济动能转换、数字化转型与创新的研究提供了一个可供选择的理论视角和分析框架。

It has become a theoretical consensus that a country or economy needs to convert its economic growth driving force when it comes to the middle-income stage.However,there is a lack of in-depth discussion on the mechanism of digital economic growth driving forces conversion so far.This paper describes the digital economy from the perspective of technological efficiency,and then builds a theoretical model of the conversion of the digital economic growth driving force.The research shows that the level of convergence between informatization and industrialization has a significant impact on economic growth in the context of low income stage and high income stage.But in middle-income stage,the level of convergence between industrialization and industrialization shows a non-significant effect,which indicates that the economic growth driving force will experience a structural failure in the middle-income stage.Based on the panel data of 55 countries and economies from 1990 to 2014,this article empirically confirms the existence of driving force structural failure.Thereby,the“technical efficiency transition”hypothesis of the mechanism of the middle-income trap is proposed,and then a theory of digital economic driving force conversion is constructed,specifically,in the middle-income stage,China needs to transform the technological efficiency type from informatization-driven to the parallel of informatization-driven and industrialization-promotion.China can overleap the middle-income trap through the implementation of a composite innovation strategy that combines digital transformation and innovation,with applied innovation complemented by exploratory innovation.This article provides an alternative theoretical perspective and analytical framework for the research on the driving force conversion,digital transformation,and innovation of the digital economy.