气候变化和都市化双重驱动下流域未来水文响应

Research on future hydrological response of basin driven by both climate change and urbanization

近年来,受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,流域的气候和水文状况发生了显著改变,分析变化环境下未来水资源演化格局成为当前国内外学者关注的重点研究内容之一。以柘溪水库流域为研究区域,利用人文因素和自然因素作为土地利用变化的驱动因子构建土地利用模型,采用MIROC5气候模式多个情景作为未来气候典型代表,利用分布式水文模型分析了气候变化和都市化双重驱动下的流域未来水文响应。结果表明:都市化发展明显增加了流域地表径流,减少了地下径流;而气候变化对水文响应驱动力比都市化对水文响应的驱动作用更强。

In recent years,the climate and hydrological conditions of river basins have undergone significant changes,which were influenced by a combination of both climate change and human activities.Analyzing the future evolution of water resources in the changing environment has become one of the key research contents of domestic and foreign scholars.Therefore,we analyzed the future hydrological response of the Zhexi Reservoir Basin driven by both climate change and urbanization.We used human factors and natural factors as driving factors of land use change to construct a land use simulation model.Also multiple scenarios of the MIROC5 climate model as typical representatives of future climate and a distributed hydrological model were adopted in the simulation.The results show that urbanization development would significantly increase surface runoff and reduce underground runoff.Climate change has a stronger driving force for hydrological response than urbanization.