新疆南疆地区太阳能资源时空分布特征及区划研究

Spatial and temporal distribution characteristic and division research of solar energy resources in southern Xinjiang

研究基于1980—2015年中国区域高时空分辨率地面气象要素驱动数据集(ITPCAS)和30个气象观测站点逐月日照资料,运用趋势分析、重标极差分析、小波分析及光热资源评价指标评估方法,对1980—2015年新疆南疆地区太阳总辐射时空分布变化规律与太阳能资源做出分析评价;并结合风沙天气频次、人口丰富度、陆路交通可达性等因素构建区域太阳能资源区划分级指标体系,探索南疆地区太阳能资源利用区划。结果表明:新疆南疆地区太阳总辐射有明显的年际变化特征,总体呈现增长趋势,且每10~15 a出现一次波动。太阳能资源南多北少,同纬度相比山区多、平原少;其中,昆仑山系一带太阳能资源最丰富且较稳定。将全区太阳能资源分为3个区:阿克苏、喀什、和田等地区太阳能资源丰富,利用价值较高且沙尘天气相对较少,为Ⅰ级可利用区,是光电与光生物质能综合利用的最佳区域;塔里木盆地及边缘地带,沙尘天气多且陆路交通可达性一般,为Ⅱ级可利用区,可在该区域推广应用农业温室、太阳能采暖等;若羌地区为Ⅲ级可利用区,该区受沙尘天气影响较大且人口、基础交通设施条件较差,可大力推进分布式光伏电站和独立微网建设。

With 2300-3300 h of daylight per year, the percentage of daylight of Xinjiang is 60%-80%, ranking second in China. Its solar energy resources are higher than that of North China and Northeast China at the same latitude and also higher than that of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China at low latitude. Among them, southern Xinjiang is particularly rich in light and heat resources. However, solar radiation observation stations are sparse, resulting in the lack of total solar radiation data in Xinjiang. Furthermore, present knowledge of the regional distribution and available areas of solar energy resources is insufficient. The ITPCAS forcing datasets(reanalysis datasets) and monthly solar data of 30 meteorological observation stations were used in this study to analyze and evaluate the spatial and temporal features of total solar radiation and solar energy resources in southern Xinjiang from 1980 to 2015. The regionalization of solar energy resources utilization was further examined. We studied the temporal-spatial distribution of solar radiation using trend, R/S analysis, and wavelet analysis. The finding revealed that the total solar radiation in the southern Xinjiang region fluctuates once every 10-15 years with a clear interannual variation, exhibiting an overall increasing trend. Using the evaluation indexes of photothermal resources to assess the regional solar energy resources and their distribution characteristics, the results indicated that the solar resources in the southern Xinjiang region are more in the south and less in the north. At the same latitude, mountainous areas have more abundant solar energy resources than plains. Among them, the solar energy resources in the Kunlun Mountains region are most abundant and stable.Finally, combined with sand storm frequency, population abundance, and land transportation accessibility to establish an evaluation index system of solar energy resources utilization regionalization, the solar energy resources can be divided into three regions: The Aksu, Kashi, and Hotan Prefecture were identified as grade Ⅰavailable areas, characterized by abundant solar energy resources, high utilization, and moderately less dust strom weather, which are the best areas for comprehensive utilization of photoelectric and photobiological energy.Because of the high frequency of sand strom and poor accessibility of land transportation, the Tarim Basin and its marginal areas are identified as grade II available areas, where can be widely applied in an agricultural greenhouse, solar heating, etc. Ruoqiang and other areas are classified as grade Ⅲ available areas, which are greatly affected by sand and dust weather and have poor conditions for the population and basic transportation facilities. Therefore, the construction of dispersed photovoltaic power stations and independent micronetworks can be highly promoted. These findings reveal that the solar energy resources in southern Xinjiang are extremely abundant, demonstrating a stable growth trend and high utilization value. This research analyzes the temporalspatial distribution of solar radiation in southern Xinjiang, explains the spatial distribution pattern of solar energy resources, and identifies the solar resource utilization regionalization, which can provide theoretical support for the integration and engineering application of low-cost ecological utilization technology.