农业现代化进程中的生产函数估计

Estimation of production function in the process of agricultural modernization

农林牧渔业投资、农业机械化水平、化肥、塑料薄膜和农业科技水平是农业生产中重要的投入要素,将这些要素纳入扩展型C-D生产函数模型,并对2000—2019年我国农业生产经济数据进行岭回归计算,得到我国同期的农业生产函数,经变量替换和研究期调整等证实该农业生产函数具有稳健性。在我国农业现代化进程中,农林牧渔业投资、化肥施用量、塑料薄膜使用量、农业机械化水平和农业科技水平对农业总产值的产出弹性系数依次降低,分别为0.383、0.269、0.213、0.161和0.051;农业科技水平、农林牧渔业投资、塑料薄膜使用量、农业机械化水平和化肥施用量对农业总产值贡献率依次为21.392%、20.681%、15.444%、13.295%和8.684%。因此,应加大农业科技水平投入和转化、农林牧渔业投资力度和新型机械动力使用补贴等,推进农业现代化建设进程。

Investment in agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,mechanization level,fertilizer,plastic sheeting,and agricultural science and technology in agricultural production are important input elements.These elements are put into the extended C-D production function model.It gets the function of agricultural production in China by ridge regression calculation based on agricultural production data from 2000 to 2019.It confirms that the function of agricultural production is robust with variable substitution and adjustment research period.In the process of agricultural modernization in China,the output elasticity of the investment in agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,application amount of fertilizer,usage of plastic film,total mechanical power,and agricultural science and technology level to total agricultural output value were reduced.The coefficients were 0.383,0.269,0.213,0.161,and 0.051,respectively.The agricultural output contributions of agricultural science and technology level,investment on agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,usage of plastic film,total mechanical power,and application amount of fertilizer on total agricultural output value are 21.392%,20.681%,15.444%,13.295%,and 8.684%,respectively.Therefore,it is necessary to increase investment in agricultural science and technology,increase investment in agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fisheries,and increase subsidies for the use of new machinery and power in order to promote the process of agricultural modernization.