美国制造业空心化的现状、原因与未来前景

The Present Situation,Reasons and Future Prospect of Hollowing-out in American Manufacturing Industry

美国制造业空心化问题由来已久,为了振兴制造业,美国政府推出“再工业化”战略。文章在分析美国制造业空心化现状的基础上,利用逻辑分析和因子回归分析探究美国制造业空心化的原因。实证结果表明,对外直接投资和生产成本对制造业空心化指标有显著负面影响;雇佣劳动力数和政府研发投入对制造业空心化指标呈现出显著正面影响;对外贸易条件对制造业空心化指标影响较小。基于上述结论,分析了美国“再工业化”政策以及预期会产生的效应与未来前景。

The hollowing out problem of the US manufacturing industry has a long history.In order to revive the manufacturing industry,the US government launched a“reindustrialization”strategy.The paper is based on the analysis of the hollowing out status of the US manufacturing industry,and uses logic analysis and factor regression analysis to explore the reasons for the“hollowingout”of the US manufacturing industry,the empirical results show that:Outward foreign direct investment and production costs have a significant negative impact on the hollowing out index of manufacturing industry;the number of hired workers and government R&D investment have a significant positive impact on the hollowing out index of manufacturing industry;foreign trade conditions have a small impact on hollowing out index of manufacturing industry.Based on the above conclusion,this paper analyzes the“reindustrialization”policy of the US and its expected effects and future prospects.