组合预测建模方法在GDP数据预测中的应用

The Application of Combination Forecast Modeling Method in GDP Data Forecast

本文分别运用灰色预测模型、ARIMA模型、多项式趋势拟合模型和以最小误差原则构建的组合预测模型对我国2015年各季度GDP进行预测,结果表明本文的组合预测建模方法具有更好的效果,提高了预测的精准度,具有一定的理论和现实意义,可为有关部门的决策管理提供必要的科学依据。

This paper uses gray forecasting model,ARIMA model,polynomial trend fitting model and combined forecasting model built on the principle of minimum error to forecast China's GDP in each quarter of 2015.The results show that the combined forecasting modeling method in this paper has better effect.The accuracy of prediction is improved,which has certain theoretical and practical significance,and can provide the necessary scientific basis for the decision-making management of relevant departments.