协同式恐怖袭击风险预测研究

Risk Prediction for Coordinated Terrorist Attacks

协同式恐怖袭击会造成更为严重的人员伤亡以及财产损失。为探索协同式恐怖袭击的基本规律,实现协同式恐怖袭击风险预测,文章基于GTD数据库,以是否采取协同式恐怖袭击模式为被解释变量,提取攻击类型、目标类型、袭击结果、武器类型、死亡人数五项因素进行了Logit模型的建模分析。结果表明,协同式恐怖袭击的攻击类型多为暗杀,袭击目标多为政治敏感性强、人员密集的目标,袭击结果多为不成功,多使用常规武器或者以佯称拥有武器的方式进行袭击。

Coordinated terrorist attacks can cause more casualties and property losses.To explore the basic rule of coordinated terrorist attacks and realize the Risk prediction for Coordinated terrorist attacks,we take whether the cooperative terrorist attack mode is adopted as the Explained Variable,and extract five factors including attack type,target type,success,weapon information and Total Number of Fatalities as explanatory variables to conduct the Logit model modeling analysis based on GTD database.The results show that the attack types of coordinated terrorist attacks are assassinations,and the targets are politically sensitive and densely populated.Most of the attacks are unsuccessful,and most of the attacks are carried out with conventional weapons or by pretending to have weapons.