货币政策对我国居民消费的影响研究——基于2001—2018年的时间序列数据

On the Impact of Monetary Policy on Household Consumption in China——Based on Time Series Data From 2001 to 2018

文章基于2001-2018年时间序列数据构建VAR模型,对货币政策与居民消费水平的相互关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:(1)货币供应量增长率与居民消费水平之间具有正相关关系,说明货币供应量的适度增长有利于提升居民的消费水平,货币滥发会造成严重的通货膨胀,不利于居民消费水平的提升;(2)物价水平与居民消费水平之间具有负相关关系,说明物价水平的上升不利于居民消费水平的提升。期望本研究结论能为我国经济政策的制定提供有益的借鉴。

Based on the time series data from 2001 to 2018,this paper constructs a VAR model and makes an empirical study on the relationship between monetary policy and residents’consumption level.The results are as the following.(1)There is a positive correlation between the growth rate of money supply and residents’consumption level,indicating that the moderate growth of money supply is conducive to improving residents’consumption level.Excessive currency will cause serious inflation,which is not conducive to the improvement of residents’consumption level.(2)There is a negative correlation between price level and residents’consumption level,indicating that the rise of price level is not conducive to the improvement of residents’consumption level.It is expected that the conclusions of this study can provide useful reference for the formulation of China’s economic policy.