老年人口快速增长期中国的经济增长预期及其实现路径

China’s Economic Growth Expectation and Its Realization Path in the Rapid Growth Period of the Elderly Population

2021年至2035年间,我国处于老年人口快速增长期,养老资金需求增长加快,在保证老年人口和劳动年龄人口收入水平不降低的条件下,经济增长的最低水平预期是“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标中应该思考的问题。在此背景之下,基于拓展的内生经济增长模型,运用数值模拟的方法,研究确定了在未来老年人口快速增长期,能够保证老年人口和劳动年龄人口收入水平不降低的经济增长最低水平预期,提出并检验了知识生产效率提升所引发的科技进步在其中的优化作用。研究发现:在老年人口快速增长期,为保证老年人口养老收入水平和劳动年龄人口收入水平不降低,经济增长率的下限水平在4.4%左右。2021年至2035年间,老年人口增长联动养老支出水平上升,其中养老支出水平每增长1%,将联动影响经济增长率约-1.3个百分点。为实现经济的可持续增长以及老年人口和劳动年龄人口收入水平不降低的目标,最优路径之一是提升知识生产效率,促进科学技术进步,初步测算知识生产效率增长率每增加1个百分点,知识存量增长率与资本增长率均会提升约4.0个百分点,这不仅完全弥补了人口老龄化对经济增长的负向影响,同时会使人均养老收入与人均劳动收入相对提升约40个百分点。

From 2021 to 2035,China will be in a rapid growth period of the elderly population,and the growth of the demand for pension funds will accelerate.Under the condition of ensuring that the income level of the elderly population and working age population does not decrease,the minimum expected level of economic growth should be considered in the“14th Five-Year Plan”and the long term goal of 2035.In this context,using the method of numerical simulation,based on the extended endogenous economic growth model,this paper studies and identifies the minimum level of economic growth expectation that can ensure that the income level of the elderly and working age population does not decrease in the future rapid growth period of the elderly population,and puts forward and tests the optimization effect of scientific and technological progress caused by the improvement of knowledge production efficiency.The results show that:1)During the period of rapid growth of the elderly population,the lower limit of economic growth rate is around 4.4%in order to ensure that the income level of the elderly and the working age population does not decrease.2)From 2021 to 2035,the growth of the elderly population will increase in associaton with the level of pension spending,and every 1%increase in the level of pension expenditure will affect the economic growth rate by about-1.3 percentage points.3)In order to achieve sustainable economic growth and the goal of not reducing the income level of the elderly and working age population,one of the best paths is to improve the efficiency of knowledge production and promote the progress of science and technology.It is preliminarily estimated that for every 1%increase in the growth rate of knowledge production efficiency,the growth rate of knowledge storage and capital will increase by about 4.0%.This not only makes up for the negative impact of population aging on economic growth,but also raise the per capita pension income and per capita labor income by about 40 percentage points.