“资产”与“负债”:美国“弃台论”思潮的历史演进

Asset or Liability:The Evolution of“Abandoning Taiwan”Voices in America

从上个世纪四十年代,美国内部就存在着“弃台论”声音。纵观历史,美国三次“弃台论”高潮中,第二次较大程度实现了“抛弃台湾”,即与台湾当局“断交”“废约”“撤军”。随着中美战略博弈持续升级,2021年美国学界再次出现“弃台论”的呼吁,要求美国政府“放弃台湾”,防止台湾问题成为中美冲突“闪爆点”并将美国拖入与中国大陆的战争漩涡。美国“弃台论”声音的持续出现,显示美国既谋求以台湾问题为筹码落实“以台制华”,又担心被台湾当局“绑架”导致与中国大陆发生大规模冲突。随着中美实力此长彼消,台湾将逐渐成为美国“负债”而非“资产”,“弃台论”也将由目前的学术探讨演变成为美国政府的决策选项。

Since the 1940s,there have been voices of“abandoning Taiwan”in the United States.In 1979,the Jimmy Carter Administration decided to switch its diplomatic relations with Chinese Mainland from Taiwan,including“severing diplomatic relations with Taiwan authorities,”“abolishing mutual defense treaties,”and“withdrawing troops”from Taiwan.In 2021,with the continuous escalation of the Sino-US strategic game,the American academic circles once again called for“abandoning Taiwan”,demanding the U.S.government to“ditch Taiwan”to prevent the Taiwan Question from becoming a“flash point”in the Sino-US conflict and drag the United States into the war with China.The continuous emergence of the US“abandoning Taiwan”vocies shows that the United States has a strategic contradiction in its Taiwan policy.It not only wants to use the Taiwan Question as a bargaining chip to implement the“Containing China”policy,but also fears that it will be“kidnapped”by the Taiwan authorities to cause a conflict with Chinese Mainland.In the fUture,as the strength of Chinese Mainland approaching the United States,the United States will once again“abandon Taiwan.”