国家身份、国内政治与地缘博弈——乌克兰地区一体化政策探析

National Identity,Domestic Politics and Geopolitical Game:An Analysis of Ukraine’s Regional Integration Policy

冷战结束后,受国家身份、国内政治和地缘博弈因素的影响,乌克兰外交政策中的地区一体化方向,存在向西、平衡或欧亚三种选择。乌克兰自身定位为东欧国家,欧亚取向不可取,向西成为基本目标。然而,受制于国内政治和地缘博弈干扰,地区一体化方向在不同政策间摇摆。当国内政治或地缘博弈削弱了国家身份对外交政策的影响时,它偏向平衡外交。当然,如果这种反作用的力量过于强大,偏离了身份塑造外交的基本方向,则将引发国内政治动荡。理论层面,本文借鉴新古典现实主义改造结构现实主义的逻辑,将国家身份作为自变量,国内政治和地缘政治博弈为干扰变量,以提升建构主义对国家具体外交政策的解释力。现实层面,通过分析乌克兰地区一体化政策及背后的动因,认识其外交政策的内在困境、东部危机的根源和发展趋势。

After the end of the Cold War,affected by national identity,domestic politics and geopolitical factors,regional integration in Ukraine’s foreign policy faced three choices,i.e.,turning westward,balancing or turning Eurasian.Ukraine positioned itself as an Eastern European country and denies its Eurasian orientation.Turning westward has become a basic goal.Nevertheless,enslaved to interference from domestic politics and geopolitical games,the direction of regional integration fluctuates among different policies.When domestic politics or geopolitical games weaken influences of national identity on foreign policies,it prefers to balancing diplomacy.Certainly,if this reactionary force is too strong and deviates from the basic direction of identity-shaping diplomacy,it will cause domestic political turmoil.Theoretically,this article draws on the logic of neoclassical realism to transform structural realism,taking national identity as an independent variable,domestic politics and geopolitical games as disturbance variables,so as to enhance explanatory capabilities in constructivism for a country’s specific foreign policy.Practically,through analyzing Ukraine’s regional integration policy and its motivation,we could understand better inherent difficulties within its foreign policy,root causes and trends of its eastern crisis as well.