乐观偏差与悲观偏差:青年学子在疫情中的两类风险认知偏差探析

Optimistic Bias and Pessimistic Bias:Understanding the Two Risk Perception Bias of College Students in the Epidemic

“风险感知偏差”是指公众基于自己的直觉感受和感性认识而高估或低估某种风险发生概率的现象。高估健康风险不仅会引发焦虑、恐慌等负面情绪,而且也会付出不必要的行为成本;而低估健康风险则不仅容易导致麻痹松懈和侥幸心理,而且也会错过最佳的应对时机。研究以“新冠肺炎”议题为例,对835名高校学生进行问卷调查后发现,青年学生在重大传染病疫情中存在着两类风险感知偏差:一类是就易感对象而言,这种认知偏差表现为个体容易低估自己遭遇新冠肺炎的概率而高估了同龄人感染新冠肺炎的概率,从而产生了“乐观偏差”。另一类是就疾病类型而言,个体错误估计了新冠肺炎与其他疾病在一般人口中的发生概率,进而产生了“悲观偏差”。同时研究还发现,无论是采用“绝对风险测量法”还是“相对风险测量法”,受访者对新冠肺炎在不同人群中的发病概率评估都存在着“乐观偏差”效应。而无论在何种情绪水平下,受访学生表现出的乐观偏差都没有显著差异。

“Risk perception bias”means that the public intuitively overestimates or underestimates the probability of a risk.Taking the COVID-19 epidemics as an example,this study conducts a questionnaire survey covering 835 college students and finds that,among college students,there are two types of risk perception biases during the epidemic.In terms of susceptibility,there is an apparent optimistic bias which underestimates their own probability of infection and overestimates the infection probability of their peers.In terms of the type of disease,there is an apparent pessimistic bias for they miscalculate the probability of COVID-19 and other diseases in the general population.The study also finds that the respondents show optimistic bias in evaluating the probability of COVID-19 in different populations regardless of the measurement used.Moreover,the study proves that the respondents’optimistic bias remains the same whatever mood they are in.