京津冀协同发展背景下的县域水资源安全诊断

Assessing water resource security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at county level in the context of regional synergistic development

本文构建了以县域为基本单元的水资源安全诊断方法体系,开展了京津冀一体化格局初步形成的社会经济发展和需水量预测,测算了多年平均径流量和近、远期调水量,诊断了多情景组合的水资源安全情势。研究表明:一体化情景下,京津冀地区在维持经济社会快速发展的前提下,区域需水总量将得到有效控制,需水结构不断优化;无调水时,大部分县域水资源压力较大,中南部县域尤为突出;随着调水工程增补,水资源压力明显缓解,但缺水性质未发生根本变化;考虑远期规划调水,京津冀地区仍有近半数县(区)受到不同程度的缺水影响,缺水量约为41亿m^(3)/a。深入推进区域协同、高质量发展,开源和节流并举是不断提升水资源安全保障能力的有效途径。

This paper proposes a methodology framework for county-level water resource security assessment.The socio-economic development and water demand are projected when the regional synergistic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jingjinji)region takes initial shape,the annual mean runoff as well as water from the inter-basin water diversion projects(WDP)in the near and distant futures are estimated,and the water resource security under different scenario combinations is assessed.The results show that in the future scenario,the socio-economic status maintains rapid development in the Jingjinji region.The total water demand in the Jingjinji region is effectively controlled,and the water demand structure is continuously optimized.When the WDP is not considered,the water resource stress in most counties,especially in the central and southern counties of the Jingjinji region,is high.With the construction of WDP,the water resource stress is significantly reduced.However,there is no fundamental change in the nature of water shortage.Even considering the distant future WDP,an estimation of nearly half of the total counties is affected by water shortage to varying degrees,and the water shortage is estimated as 4.1 billion m^(3)/a.It is an effective way to increase the guarantee capacity of water resource security in the Jingjinji region by further promoting the regional synergistic and high quality development,exploring new water resources and saving water.