基于VAR模型的城镇化与第三产业发展关系分析——以河北省为例

Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Tertiary Industry Development Based on VAR Model--Taking Hebei Province as an Example

城镇化与第三产业发展关系是当代中国政治和经济社会进步与发展的综合性研究课题。论文依据河北省1990-2019年城镇化率、第三产业生产总值和就业人数的时间序列统计数据,运用时间序列的平稳性检验,根据所选变量的格兰杰因果性创建向量自回归模型,并用方差分解解析各变量贡献率,从而探究河北省城镇化、第三产业生产总值以及就业人数之间的关系。通过模型建立发现第三产业平均就业率对于城镇化发展有正面意义,河北省新型城镇化的发展与第三产业的总产值存在负向关系。论文对此问题提出具体的决策建议,从而推动各方协作共赢,共同发展。

The relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry development is a comprehensive research subject of contemporary Chinese political,economic and social progress and development.Based on the time series statistical data of urbanization rate,GDP of tertiary industry and employment number of Hebei Province from 1990 to 2019,the paper uses the stationarity test of time series to create a vector autoregression model according to granger causality of selected variables,and analyzes the contribution rate of each variable with variance decomposition,so as to explore the relationship between urbanization,GDP of tertiary industry and employment number in Hebei Province.Through the establishment of the model,it is found that the average employment rate of the tertiary industry has positive significance for the development of urbanization,and there is a negative relationship between the development of new urbanization and the total output value of the tertiary industry in Hebei Province.This paper puts forward specific decision-making suggestions for this problem,so as to promote win-win cooperation and common development.