基于现场数据的水雷引信贮存可靠度估计与预测模型

Estimation and Prediction Model of Underwater Mine Fuze Storage Reliability Based on Field Detection Data

水雷引信是影响水雷武器系统贮存可靠性的关键部件,而水雷引信贮存可靠性的专项试验数据少,因此本文从现场检测数据入手,在水雷引信贮存失效率点估计和区间估计基础上,建立了当前检测状态下的引信贮存可靠度估计与预测模型,并通过实例验证了模型的有效性,为水雷引信贮存可靠性评估与预测提供了一种新方法,以便合理确定相关维修策略。

The mine fuze is a key component that affects the storage reliability of the underwater mine weapon system,but there are few special test data on the storage reliability of the underwater mine fuze.Therefore,this article starts from the field detection data,based on the point estimation and interval estimation of the underwater mine fuze storage failure rate,establishes the fuse storage reliability estimation and prediction model under the current detection state,and verifies the validity of the model through examples.The fuse storage reliability evaluation and prediction provides a new method to reasonably determine the relevant maintenance strategy.