基于不确定性的雄安新区城市水系统安全保障技术研究

Research on urban water system security technology in Xiong’an New Area under uncertainty

为提升雄安新区应对气候变化和急性冲击灾害的适应能力,建设高韧性高弹性的城市水系统,实现新区水系统的安全运行与可持续发展,构建了基于不确定性的雄安新区城市水系统安全保障技术。该技术包括水系统的风险源识别、风险综合评价和风险管理策略3部分。在应对气候变化方面,提出了"气候变化模拟预估—气候变化增量分析—水系统影响风险分析"的技术框架、不同精度的气候变化增量分析方法,以及分层级的城市水系统气候变化影响与风险分析方法。在应对急性冲击方面,提出了有效识别城市水系统面临的急性冲击风险源识别方法,以及急性冲击灾害多情景多灾种风险分析方法。在安全保障机制方面,提出了建立雄安新区水系统应急预案体系的要求,以及区域协同、综合应对、专业负责和网格化管理的"城市-组团-社区"三级风险管控机制。

In order to improve the adaptability of Xiong’an New Area to climate change and acute shocks,develop an urban water system with high resilience and elasticity,and realize the safe operation and sustainable development of the water system in Xiong’an New Area,an uncertainty based urban water system security technology is constructed.The technology includes three parts:risk source identification,comprehensive risk evaluation and risk management strategy of the urban water system.In dealing with climate change,the technical framework of"climate change projection-climate change incremental analysis water system impact and risk analysis",climate change incremental analysis methods with different accuracy,and hierarchical urban water system climate change impact and risk analysis methods are proposed.In dealing with acute shocks,the identification method of acute shocks risk sources faced by urban water system and the risk analysis method of multi scenario and multi disaster of acute shocks are proposed.In terms of security mechanism,it puts forward the requirements for establishing the emergency plan system of the urban water system in Xiong’an New Area,as well as the three-level risk control mechanism of"city-cluster-community"with regional coordination,comprehensive response,professional responsibility and grid management.