社交隔离、供需失衡与鸡蛋价格调整

Social isolation during COVID-19,imbalance between supply and demand,and egg price adjustment

本文使用全国116个地级市2017—2020年鸡蛋价格日度面板数据,采用广义倍差法实证研究了新冠肺炎疫情及社交隔离措施对鸡蛋价格的短期影响。研究发现:①新冠肺炎疫情对鸡蛋价格有显著的负向作用,疫情后市场鸡蛋价格平均下降了13%左右。②疫情对鸡蛋价格的负向影响在地区间存在差异。鸡蛋主销区、疫情重灾区的鸡蛋价格降幅较小,经济条件差、城镇化进程慢、电子商务欠发达地区的鸡蛋价格降幅较大。上述研究间接表明社交隔离既引致需求萎缩,又因地区封锁改变市场供需格局进而影响到农产品价格。本文既有助于理解疫情冲击下农产品价格调整机制,又可为制定相关政策稳定农产品价格提供决策参考。

Based on the major public health emergency of the new crown pneumonia epidemic,this article used the Generalized Difference-in-Differences(DID)with the daily panel data of 116 prefecture-level cities in China in order to estimate the short-term effect of the social isolation in COVID-19 on egg prices.We found that:①The new crown pneumonia epidemic has a significant negative on the price of eggs,and the market egg price dropped by an average of 13%after the epidemic.②This negative effect did not equal cross regions.Among them,the main egg sales area,the price of eggs in the hard-hit areas has fallen less,while the price of eggs in areas with poor economic conditions,slow urbanization and underdeveloped e-commerce has fallen more.The findings indicated that social isolation has not only led to shrinking demand,but also gave rise to the mismatch between supply and demand in the product market due to regional blockades.This article not only helps to understand the agricultural product pricing mechanism under the impact of the epidemic,but also provides decision-making reference for formulating relevant policies to stabilize agricultural product prices.