基于生命周期理论的养老保险储蓄效应研究

Study on Pension Savings Effect Based on Life Cycle Theory

我国人口年龄结构不断发生变化,老龄化逐渐加快,导致养老保险费用支出增加,从而影响居民储蓄率的改变。为了探究人口年龄结构与养老保险对居民储蓄的影响。构建“统账结合”养老保险制度下的世代交叠模型,利用现有面板数据分析该制度下的储蓄效应。研究结果显示,养老保险对居民储蓄存在挤出效应但缺乏弹性,养老保障水平影响居民储蓄,制度完善程度影响居民储蓄心理,家庭成员年龄结构影响储蓄动机。由此看来,当前我国养老保险制度应适当提高社会养老金待遇并进行差异化政策设计,同时政府部门要做好政策引导,加强对制度实施的监管。

The age structure of China’s population is constantly changing,and the aging is gradually accelerating,leading to the increase of endowment insurance premium expenditure,thus affecting the change of resident savings rate.In order to explore the impact of population age structure and endowment insurance on residents’savings,the generation overlapping model under the“unified account combination”endowment insurance system was constructed,and the savings effect under this system was analyzed using the existing panel data.The research results show that the pension insurance has a crowding out effect but an inelasticity on the residents’savings,the level of the pension security affects the residents’savings,the improvement of the system affects the residents’savings psychology,and the age structure of the family members affects the savings motivation.From this point of view,the current China’s pension insurance system should appropriately improve the social pension benefits and differentiated policy design,at the same time,the government departments should do a good job in policy guidance,strengthen the supervision of the implementation of the system.