黄河治理巨大的减沙成就 与未来输沙需水量

Great achievements in sediment reduction and water demand of sediment transport in the feature of the Yellow River management

回顾了黄河上中游泥沙治理,对水沙变化研究成果进行述评。认为1960年、1999年是黄河治理影响减沙的关键节点,将百年过程分成1919—1960年(自然状态)、1961—1999年(退耕还林前)和2000—2020年(现状)三个阶段。利用统计方法对潼关站相应水沙资料进行计算,发现来沙量大幅度减少是黄河治理作用不断显现的结果,同时认为不同学者对于泥沙量预测结果存在差异的原因,是对水沙方程求解时是否采用对应的定解条件。以此为基础,进一步定量研究了黄河治理至今的减沙成就。运用经验法与河流动力学方法,计算出未来30年内年均沙量若为2.2亿~2.4亿t时,输沙需水量为65.3亿~73.7亿m^(3)。

On the basis of reviewing the sediment control work in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River,this paper reviews the research results of the water and sediment change of the Yellow River,distinguishes the years 1960 and 1999 as the time nodes reflecting the impact of the Yellow River control on sediment reduction,and divides 1919—1960,1961—1999 and 2000—2020 into three stages:natural state,before returning farmland to forest and current situation.Using the statistical method to calculate the corresponding water and sediment data of Tongguan station,it is found that the significant reduction of sediment inflow is the result of the continuous improvement of the Yellow River.At the same time,it is considered that the reason for some unreasonable prediction results is that different scholars do not use the corresponding definite solution conditions when solving the complex water and sediment equations.On this basis,the sediment reduction achievements of the Yellow River have been calculated quantitatively.In addition,the empirical method and river dynamics method are successively used to calculate the sediment transport water demand of 6.53~7.37 billion m^(3) when the average annual sediment volume is predicted to be 220~240 million t in the next 30 years.