不同边界层方案在短期天气模拟中的精度评估

Accuracy Evaluation of Different Boundary Layers in Short Term Weather Element Simulation

利用中尺度气象模式WRF中不同闭合方法的两种边界层参数化方案(MYJ,YSU)模拟了吉林西部地区2017年7月7日至7月8日的2 m温度和10 m风速的变化,利用相关系数、均方根误差、平均偏差和平均误差等方法将模拟结果与吉林西部6个气象站点的实际观测资料进行对比分析.结果表明:局地闭合方案MYJ和非局地闭合方案YSU能很好地模拟出吉林西部风、温随时间变化的特征;其中MYJ边界层方案模拟2 m气温的结果与实测结果更为接近,模拟精度要高于YSU方案;在10 m风速的模拟中,两种方案模拟结果均大于实测风速,非局地闭合方案YSU模拟结果与实测数据偏差更小,精度更高.

Different closure methods of two boundary layer parameterization schemes(MYJ,YSU)in WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)are employed to simulate the variation of 2 m air temperature and 10 m wind speed in western Jilin from July 7 to July 8,2017.The correlation coefficient,root mean square error,average deviation and average error are used to compare and analyze the actual observation data of 6 meteorological stations in western Jilin.The results indicate that the MYJ and YSU can well simulate the characteristics of wind and air temperature changing with time in western Jilin.The results of 2 m air temperature simulation showed that the MYJ boundary layer scheme is closer to the measured results,and the simulation accuracy is higher than that of YSU scheme.The results of the two schemes simulation are both larger than that of measured results,the deviation between the results of YSU simulation and the measured data is smaller and the accuracy is higher.