灰色马尔科夫模型在细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病率预测中的应用研究

Application of Grey Markov Model in Incidence Prediction of Bacterial and Amoebic Dysentery

为探讨灰色马尔科夫模型在我国细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病率预测中的应用效果,文章以我国2005—2019年细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病率数据建立灰色马尔科夫模型,运用该模型对年发病率进行拟合及预测,并与GM(1,1)模型对比以检验模型效果.结果表明,灰色马尔科夫模型拟合和预测精度都明显高于传统GM(1,1)模型.因此,灰色马尔科夫模型对我国细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾发病率的预测,结果更加客观、合理、准确,可供有关部门参考.

Objective:To investigate the application effect of grey Markov model in the incidence prediction of bacterial and amoeba dysentery in China.Methods:A grey Markov model was established from the 2005-2017 incidence from 2005-2018 and 2019,compared with the GM(1,1)model and 2020-2019 and 2021 from 2005-2019.Results:Both gray Markov model fitting and prediction accuracy are significantly higher than traditional GM(1,1)models;the incidence will continue to decline in both 2020 and 2021.Conclusion:The prediction of the grey Markov model on the incidence of bacterial and amoebic dysentery in China is more objective,reasonable and accurate,and is available for reference by relevant departments.