SEC储量主要影响因素敏感性及互换关系研究

Study on sensitivity and conversion relationship of main influencing factors of SEC reserves

SEC储量是反映油气勘探开发企业生产经营水平、竞争力以及可持续发展能力的综合指标。主要影响因素有原油产量、评估递减率、评估成本、评估油价等。在Arps递减理论基础上,研究推导了主要影响因素与SEC储量的量化关系模型,以及SEC储量相同条件下,主要影响因素相互转换数理模型,分析了SEC储量对主要评估参数的敏感性排序,并结合某油区SEC储量评估实践,进行了实例论证。研究认为,SEC储量对四个主要评估参数的敏感性强弱排序依次是:评估初始产油量>评估递减率>评估成本=评估油价。研究结论为后续SEC储量评估与分析提供了理论依据。同时,对SEC储量评估固定成本劈分方法进行了探讨,分析了传统的产量劈分法的缺点与不合理性,以及新推荐的井数劈分法的优点与合理性。

SEC reserve is a comprehensive index reflecting the production and operation level,competitiveness,and sustainable development capabilities of oil and gas exploration and development enterprises.The main influencing factors include crude oil production,evaluated decline rate,evaluated cost,evaluated oil price,etc.Based on the Arps decline theory,this paper studies and derives the quantitative relationship model between the main influencing factors and SEC reserves,and the mathematical model of mutual conversion between the main influencing factors under the same conditions of SEC reserves,and analyzes the sensitivity ranking of SEC reserves to the main evaluation parameters.Based on the practice of SEC reserves evaluation in a certain oil area,a case study was carried out.The study results show that the order of sensitivity of SEC reserves to the four main evaluation parameters is as follows:evaluated initial oil production>evaluated decline rate>evaluated cost=evaluated oil price.The research conclusions can provide a theoretical basis for the evaluation and analysis of subsequent SEC reserves.At the same time,the paper also discusses the fixed cost splitting method of SEC reserves evaluation and analyzes the shortcomings and irrationality of the traditional production splitting method and the advantages and rationality of the newly recommended well number splitting method.