上海人口老龄化发展趋势及影响因素研究——基于灰色理论

Research on the Development Trend and Influencing Factors of Population Aging in Shanghai--Based on Grey Theory

老龄化导致人口结构改变、抚养比提高、养老金给付压力加大等诸多问题,会进一步制约社会经济发展。利用上海2007—2018年统计年鉴数据,基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)预测模型,对上海65岁及以上老龄人口数发展趋势进行研究。结果发现,到2035年上海65岁及以上老年人口突破760万,且每年以5%左右的速度递增。同时,运用灰色关联理论分析上海老龄化的主要影响因素,结果发现,GDP增长率、人均可支配收入、卫生服务人员数与出生率等相关因素对老龄化影响较大。最后,基于预测分析结论提出针对性的建议,以期有效应对老龄化现象。

Aging cause population structure change,the dependency ratio improve,pension pressure growth problems which will further restrict the social and economic development,using the Shanghai statistical yearbook data from 2007 to 2018,based on the theory of grey system GM(1,1)forecast model of Shanghai 65 and older elderly population development trend of the results of the study found that by 2035,Shanghai 65 and older elderly population reached 7.6 million people,and the growth rate is about 5%every year.At the same time,the grey correlation theory is used to analyze the main factors affecting the aging of Shanghai.GDP growth rate,per capita disposable income,the number of health service personnel and birth rate and other related factors have a greater impact on aging.Finally,based on the prediction analysis conclusions and put forward targeted suggestions and measures to actively deal with the aging phenomenon.