基于DEMATEL-ISM的液氨泄漏事故风险分析

Risk analysis of liquid ammonia leakage accident based on DEMATEL-ISM

为减少液氨泄漏事故的发生,从人、机、环、管4个方面构建了液氨泄漏事故影响因素指标体系;利用决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)计算了15个影响因素的中心度和原因度,确定了关键影响因素及影响因素的因果属性;结合解释结构模型(ISM)构建了液氨泄漏事故影响因素递阶层次结构模型,确定了各影响因素间的内在联系;并以某乳制品企业为例,验证DEMATEL-ISM模型的有效性。结果表明,DEMATEL-ISM模型可直观体现事故影响因素间的相互影响关系,并确定液氨泄漏事故的关键影响因素,为企业安全决策提供可靠依据。

In order to reduce the occurrence of liquid ammonia leakage accident,this paper constructs the index system of influencing factors of liquid ammonia leakage accident from four aspects of man,machine,enviroment and management.The centrality and cause degree of 15 influencing factors were calculated by using Decision Laboratory Analysis(DEMATEL),and the key influencing factors and the causal attributes of influencing factors were determined.Combined with the Interpretative Structure Model(ISM),the hierarchical structure model of influencing factors of liquid ammonia leakage accident is constructed,and the internal relationship among the influencing factors is determined.Taking a dairy enterprise as an example,the effectiveness of DEMATEL-ISM model is verified.The results show that the DEMATEL-ISM model can directly reflect the mutual influence relationship between the accident influencing factors,and determine the key influencing factors of liquid ammonia leakage accident,so as to provide a reliable basis for enterprise safety decision-making.