中国的人口出生率与M2同比增长率之间的关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

A Study on the Relationship between Birth Rate and M2 Year-on-Year Growth Rate in China--An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

选取2000-2019年中央人民银行和国家统计局公布的调查统计数据进行描述性统计分析,并基于VAR模型进行实证分析,分析结果显示:M2同比增长率在模糊轨迹上单调递减,人口出生率会伴随M2同比增长率同向运动,且两者之间的反应具有时滞,即不同步;M2同比增长率的突变会引起人口出生率的突变,且两者之间的反应具有一定的时滞。

A descriptive statistical analysis and empirical analysis based on VAR model is made of the statistics released by the People’s Bank of China and National Bureau of Statistics.The following two conclusions are drawn:first,the year-on-year growth rate of M2 decreases monotonously on a fuzzy trajectory,and the birth rate moves in the same direction with the year-on-year growth rate of M2,and the reaction between the two is time-delayed(i.e.,not synchronous);second,the mutation of M2 year-on-year growth rate will lead to the mutation of birth rate,and there is a certain time lag in the reaction between the two.