业绩补偿承诺、并购溢价与市场反应

Performance Compensation Commitment,M&A Premium and Market Reaction

"承诺"在经济学理论和政策研究中都具有重要价值。本文基于我国资本市场中并购业绩补偿承诺这一特殊的制度背景,以A股上市公司2008—2015年披露业绩补偿承诺的并购事件为研究样本,检验目标公司在并购交易中承诺利润增长率对并购市场反应的影响及其作用机制。实证结果表明:目标公司承诺的利润增长率越高,并购宣告的累计超常收益率越低,即并购市场反应越消极。在经过一系列的稳健性检验后,上述结论依然成立。进一步分析表明,承诺利润增长率越高,目标公司获得的并购溢价越高,而未来实现承诺的概率越低;对于非关联并购、相对规模较大的并购、非相关行业的并购而言,由于双方的信息不对称程度更高,承诺利润增长率与并购市场反应的负相关关系更显著。本文不仅为公司财务中有关业绩补偿承诺的研究文献提供了有益的增量信息,还为监管部门规范公司并购重组行为提供了重要的参考依据。

Commitment has important value in economic theory and policy research.Based on the specific institutional background of M&A performance compensation commitment in China’s capital market,using a sample of M&A events which attach performance compensation commitment of listed firms in China’s A share market over 2008 to 2015,this paper examines the influence of the growth rate of committed profit made by the target firms on the M&A market reaction and its mechanism.The empirical results show that the higher the growth rate is,the lower the cumulative abnormal return(CAR)is,which means the worse M&A market performance is.F urther analysis shows that the negative correlation between growth rate of commitment and M&A market performance is more significant for non-related party acquisitions,relatively larger-scale acquisitions,and cross-industry acquisitions for the higher degree of information asymmetry.Besides,the M&A premium increase with the committed growth rate,while the probability of commitment realization decrease with it.This paper not only enriches the research of performance commitment in corporate finance,but also provides an important reference for regulators to norm the behavior of firms in M&As.