2021年10月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,October 2021

目的评估2021年10月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果总体上,预计10月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较9月上升。我国境内发生新型冠状病毒境外输入及续发本地传播风险持续存在,但在可控范围内。诺如病毒肠炎疫情可能会明显上升,发生场所仍将以学校为主。食物中毒依然处于高发月份,且国庆假期为旅游、聚餐高峰,预计报告事件数及中毒人数可能会有所增加;秋冬季节,误采误食有毒植物造成中毒事件的风险增高。结论需要对新型冠状病毒肺炎予以特别关注,对诺如病毒肠炎和食物中毒予以一般关注。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in October 2021.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results Generally speaking,it is expected that the incidence of public health emergencies reported in October would increase compared with that in September.The risk of imported cases and secondary infections of COVID-19 would continue to exist,but would be controllable.Clusters and outbreaks of norovirus enteritis would increase significantly,still mainly in schools.Food poisoning would still be in a high incidence month,and the National Day holiday would be the peak of tourism and dinner,so it is expected that the number of reported incidents and poisoned people might increase.In autumn and winter,the risk of poisoning incidents caused by eating poisonous plants by mistake would increase.Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19,and general attention should be paid to norovirus enteritis and food poisoning.