2021年9月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in September 2021

目的评估2021年9月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。结果与2021年8月相比,2021年9月全球新增确诊病例下降了19.9%,全球新增死亡病例下降了12.0%。全球每新增1000万确诊病例、每新增50万死亡病例用时均呈现增加趋势。累计发病率增长最快的是欧洲区和美洲区(北)。9月新增确诊病例全球前十位中有3个国家来自欧洲区,美国以4138344新增确诊病例稳居榜首。菲律宾以39.7%新增确诊病例增长率成为9月唯一的“全球重点关注国家”,埃塞俄比亚以35.2%新增确诊病例增长率成为9月唯一的“WHO各分区一般关注国家”,俄罗斯和蒙古是我国陆地接壤十四国中的“周边特别关注国家”。结论进入9月后,全球COVID-19疫情出现好转,但少部分地区仍有较大波动,应予以重点关注,及时沟通并调整防控措施。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in September 2021 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University,combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries.The assessment results for each country are expressed as"countries of global concern","countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region"and"neighbouring countries of special concern".Results Compared with August 2021,the number of global newly confirmed cases and deaths in September decreased by 19.9%and 12.0%.Globally,there were trends that it took much more time both for a 10 million case increasing and for a 500 thousand death increasing.The fastest incidence rate was the European and American regions(North).In September,three of the top ten newly confirmed cases in the world came from Europe,and the United States ranked first with 4138344 newly confirmed cases.With a growth rate of 39.7%of newly confirmed cases,the Philippines has become the only"country of global concern".With a growth rate of 35.2%of newly confirmed cases,the Ethiopia has become the only"country of the general concern in each WHO sub-region".Russia and Mongolia were the"neighbouring countries of special concern".Conclusion Since September,the global covid-19 epidemic situation has improved.However,there were still large fluctuations in a few countries,which should be paid special attention to,timely communicate and adjusted measures.