人口老龄化、资本供求与国际直接投资流动

Population Aging,Capital Supply and Demand,and Foreign Direct Investment Flows

人口老龄化已经成为全球普遍现象,而东道国的劳动供给和资本供求是企业进行国际化经营时考虑的重要因素。文章基于世代交叠模型(OLG),分析了人口老龄化对国际直接投资流动的影响。理论研究表明,人口老龄化导致劳动人口减少和居民储蓄增加,其从资本需求和资本供给两个渠道,同时引起国际直接投资净流入减少。基于1970~2019年国别面板数据的实证研究显示,人口老龄化会显著抑制国际直接投资净流入,运用静态面板回归方法和动态面板回归方法得到的实证结果均显著。此外,越发达国家的人口老龄化对国际直接投资净流入的抑制作用越明显。提高人口生育率有利于缓解人口老龄化对国际直接投资净流入的抑制作用。

Population aging has become a universal phenomenon in the world.The labor supply as well as capital supply and demand of the host country are the important factors for the enterprises to consider in their international operation.Based on Over Lapping Generation Models(OLG),this paper analyzes the impact of population aging on foreign direct investment(FDI)flows.The theoretical research shows that population aging leads to the decrease in the working population and the increase in the residents’savings,and it causes the reduction in the net inflows of FDI from the two channels of capital demand and capital supply.The empirical research based on the country panel data from 1970 to 2019 reveals that population aging significantly inhibits the net inflows of FDI,and the empirical results obtained by using static panel regression method and dynamic panel regression method are both significant.In addition,the inhibitory effect of population aging of the more developed countries on the net inflows of FDI is more obvious.Raising the population fertility rate is conducive to alleviating the inhibitory effect of population aging on the net inflows of FDI.