长三角城市综合福利、资源环境压力与经济增长的时空响应关系

Research on Spatiotemporal Response Relationship Between Urban Comprehensive Well-being, Resource and Environment Pressure and Economic Growth in Yangtze River Delta City

基于2000~2017年长三角城市综合福利、资源环境压力与经济增长的面板数据,利用空间变差函数、面板向量自回归和面板灰色关联模型探究三者的时空演化、冲击响应及关联特征。研究发现:(1)长三角城市综合福利、资源环境压力和经济增长皆呈持续递增演进,且地市间分异趋于持续下降;(2)综合福利、资源环境压力和经济增长具有长期交互作用影响,三者间冲击响应具有时序累积效应,而资源环境压力与综合福利水平不具有因果作用关系,经济增长和综合福利存在单向因果关系;(3)面板灰色关联揭示经济增长和综合福利空间关联系数较高,表现出东高西低的分异格局,而综合福利、经济增长同资源环境压力的空间关联系数则呈现出经济欠发达地市高于发达地市的空间错位现象,且三者间的关联系数随时间呈波动下降变化。

Based on the panel data of comprehensive well-being, resource and environmental pressure and economic growth of cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2017, the spatial variogram function, panel vector auto-regression and panel gray correlation model were used to explore the spatio-temporal evolution, impulse response and correlation characteristics between the three. The results indicate that:(1) Urban comprehensive well-being, resource and environmental pressure and economic growth of cities in the Yangtze River Delta have showed continuous upward evolution, and the regional differentiation between cities tends to continue to decline.(2) urban comprehensive well-being, resource and environmental pressure, and economic growth have long-term interaction effects, and the impulse response between the three has a time-series cumulative effect, while resource and environmental pressure and urban comprehensive well-being have no causal relationship, and there is a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and urban comprehensive well-being. causal relationship.(3) The panel grey correlation reveals that the spatial correlation coefficient of economic growth and urban comprehensive well-being is relatively high, showing a differentiated pattern of high in the east and low in the west, while the spatial correlation coefficient of between urban comprehensive well-being, economic growth and resource and environment pressure shows a spatial dislocation phenomenon with higher correlation intensity distributed in economically underdeveloped cities and lower correlation intensity distributed in developed cities. And, the general correlation intensity between the three tends to fluctuate and decrease with time.