未来预期、农户分化与宅基地退出抉择

Future Expectation, Farmers’ Differentiation and Decision of Withdrawing from Rural Homesteads

建立农村宅基地有偿退出机制是缓解城乡用地供需矛盾、促进乡村振兴的重要方面。基于宅基地退出试点地区农户调研数据,通过中介效应和调节效应检验,考察农户未来预期对宅基地退出行为的作用机理。研究表明:积极的预期使农户具有更高的宅基地退出意愿,并对农户退出行为具有显著的正向作用;农户分化在"未来预期—宅基地退出意愿—退出行为"影响路径中具有调节效应,非农收入占比越高的农户,宅基地退出意愿对退出行为的正向影响越强,农户将积极的预期转化为退出行为的概率越大。故此,可从稳定农户预期和创造农户宅基地退出的能力及条件入手,稳定农户预期,关注农户就业,鼓励和引导有积极预期、有条件的农户参与宅基地退出。

Establishing a compensated rural homestead withdrawal mechanism has great practical significance of alleviating the imbalance between supply and demand for urban and rural land and promoting rural revitalization. Based on household surveys of farmers from 5 counties in Zhejiang and Sichuan, this paper focuses on examining the mechanism of how expectations influence farmers’ behaviour in homestead withdrawal by using moderating and mediating effects. Our research has found that: first, farmers with positive expectations about the future are more likely to withdraw from homesteads. According to the moderating test, farmers’ willingness of homestead withdrawal acts as a mediator between their expectations and homestead withdrawal behaviour. Second, the moderating test shows that the differentiation of farmers is a moderator variable between the willingness and behaviour of homestead withdrawal. Farmers with greater proportions of non-agricultural income are more likely to realize their will of homestead withdrawal into actual behaviour. We are able to conclude that: farmers’ expectations and households’ non-agricultural income share complement each other. An increase of non-agricultural employment or non-agricultural income share will increase the probability of homestead withdrawal among farmers with positive expectations and ability to afford homestead withdrawal. Therefore, we recommend that the government should stabilize farmers’ expectations of future and reduce the opportunity costs of withdrawing from rural homestead to make withdrawal more appealing and affordable to farmers. Relevant policies may include stabilizing farmers’ withdrawal expectations, increasing famers’ employment in non-agricultural sector, establishing a stable employment mechanism for farmers who withdrew from homesteads and providing employment preferential policies.