基于多时相遥感数据的村镇聚落格局演化及机理研究——以江苏省为例

Spatial Pattern and its Evolution Mechanism of Village and Town Settlement Based on Multi-temporal Remote Sensing Images: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

快速城市化背景下,村镇聚落的空间格局正在经历前所未有的变革和重塑过程,探寻其演变规律、研判其背后动力机制对于实现城乡统筹发展意义重大。基于多时相遥感影像的村镇点位数据,运用最近邻比率、核密度、空间自相关等GIS和统计分析方法,以江苏省为例,从省域和县域尺度探讨快速城市化地区村镇聚落格局及演变机理。结果表明:(1)省域尺度上,江苏省村镇聚落整体呈集聚分布,但集聚态势略有减弱;核密度的区域差异显著,整体东部小于西部,苏北连续性较强而苏南较为破碎;密度核心普遍收缩,苏南地区收缩最为显著。(2)县域尺度上,村镇聚落集聚格局依旧,与省域尺度一样,其集聚程度随时间推移而降低;冷热点分布较为分散,"热点区"主要分布在苏北地区,"冷点区"均位于苏南地区;时间维度上,"热点区"有扩大趋势,"冷点区"则呈收缩之势;苏南和苏北地区的村镇聚落格局在该尺度上变化均较为明显。(3)演变机理上,自然地理、社会经济、政策制度和其他因素共同作用于村镇聚落空间演化过程,在本文研究时段内,交通、城市化和政策3个因子对江苏省村镇聚落的格局改变具有显著性。

As the urbanization processing rapidly, the spatial pattern of village and town settlement is transforming and reshaping. And it is of great significance to probe into the change of village and town settlement and the mechanism behind the phenomenon. In the work, based on the multi-temporal remote sensing images in 2000 and 2015, the spatial pattern characteristics of village and town settlement in Jiangsu province were analyzed by using the methods of nearest neighbor ratio, kernel density and spatial auto-correlation, and on the basis of the provincial and county scale the spatial change of settlement was discussed, and then the driving mechanism of driving force mechanism was constructed. Conclusions are drawn as follows:(1) On provincial scale, the distribution of village and town settlement is concentrate, but there is a weakening trend of the concentration. The regional difference is significant, since the western part of Jiangsu Province has higher density than the east, and in north the high density agglomeration is continuous while the south is fragmented. Overall, the density cores, especially the density cores in Southern Jiangsu, are shrinking obviously.(2) On county scale, the distribution of village and town settlement is concentrate still. However, the concentration is weakening from 2000 to 2015, which is consistent to the provincial aspect. The distribution of cold and hot spots is relatively scattered. The hot spots mainly distribute in Northern Jiangsu, while the cold spots locate in Southern Jiangsu only. Over time, the hot spots is expand and the cold spots is shrinking. So from the county aspect, the change of the hot and cold spots is both obvious in Southern and Northern Jiangsu.(3) In terms of evolution mechanism, natural geography, social economy, policy and other factors are all considered. However, from the degree of the change that factors made, transportation, urbanization and policy play the most important roles. These three factors account for the spatial change of village and town settlement in Jiangsu province from 2000 to 2015.