Natech风险管理中的承灾体脆弱性评估方法综述

Review of hazard bearing bodies'vulnerability assessment methods in Natech risk management

为探明在Natech环境下评估承灾体脆弱性的方法以及发展方向,从关联性和不确定性2方面出发,归纳总结出评估方法的研究现状、主要应用场景以及在应用中存在的缺陷及其展望。研究结果表明:从研究方向来看,现有研究多集中于物理脆弱性,而针对社会脆弱性研究较少;从研究方法来看,事故树、领结图和贝叶斯网络可展现原因与后果的关联性;回归模型可给出各原因导致事故的占比,发现脆弱性升级的根源;贝叶斯网络与模糊理论的结合使脆弱性的估计更准确,但与Rapid-N方法一样,缺少系统的研究,未被广泛用于Natech风险评估中。

In order to explore assessment method of vulnerability for hazard bearing bodies and its development direction under Natech environment,research status,main application scenarios,existing defects and prospects of evaluation methods were summarized from perspectives of relevance and uncertainty.The results show that from the aspect of research direction,existing research mainly focuses on physical vulnerability rather than social and urban vulnerability.Then,from that of research methods,fault trees,bow-tie diagrams and Bayesian network can show correlation between causes and consequences.Additionally,regression model can calculate proportion of accidents caused by each reason and find out roots of vulnerability upgrade.Due to lack of systematic studies,although its combination of Bayesian network and simulation system makes estimation of vulnerability more accurate,the method has not been widely used in Natech risk assessment.