国家重点生态功能区设立是否促进了经济发展--基于双重差分法的政策效果评估

Has the establishment of National Key Ecological Function Areas promoted economic development?-evaluation of the policy effects based on a DID study

国家重点生态功能区作为主体功能区战略的重要组成部分,既是中国重要的生态屏障和生态产品主产区,也是促进绿色减贫、实现人与自然和谐共生的重要战场,探索国家重点生态功能区经济发展问题具有重要的理论与现实意义。文章以2007—2015年中国县级行政单位为样本,利用国家重点生态功能区设立这一准自然实验,采用双重差分法从总量和人均两个层面考察政策实施对当地经济发展水平的影响,并利用事件分析法、基于Bootstrap方法的安慰剂检验、对照组筛选等方法检验了结论的稳健性。基准回归结果表明,在总量和人均两个层面上,国家重点生态功能区的设立显著提高了实验组经济发展水平。机制分析结果显示,更高强度的财政支出水平和投资水平是促进国家重点生态功能区经济发展的重要动力。政策实施降低了劳动力空间错配程度,促进了产业结构升级,有助于国家重点生态功能区经济发展。此外,文章以县级PM2.5和林草覆盖率为观测,研究了政策实施后的环境效应,结果表明国家重点生态功能区的设立有助于实现“绿水青山”和“金山银山”双赢。进一步地,文章考察了政策实施对水土保持型、水源涵养型、生物多样性维护型和防风固沙型四类生态功能区影响的差异性。结果显示,政策实施对不同类型生态功能区经济发展均起到了促进作用,总量层面和人均层面的影响程度分别在4.51%到7.38%之间和5.45%到6.48%之间。基于上述结论,文章提出了积极探索市场化运作的生态产品价值实现路径、充分发挥中央财政生态补偿转移支付资金的引领示范作用等政策建议。

As an important part of the functional zoning strategy,the National Key Ecological Function Areas(NKEFAs)are not only important ecological barriers and main producing areas of ecological products in China,but also important battlefields for green poverty reduction and the harmonious coexistence of man and nature.Exploring the economic development issue of the NKEFAs has important theoretical and practical significance.This study took county-level administrative units in China from 2007 to 2015 as its sample and used the difference-in-differences(DID)method to examine the impact of the policy of establishing the NKEFAs on local economic de⁃velopment at both total and per capita levels,taking the establishment of the NKEFAs as a quasi-natural experiment.The robustness of the empirical results was tested with methods including event study,placebo test based on a bootstrap method,and control group screen⁃ing.Benchmark regression results showed that the establishment of the NKEFAs significantly improved the economic development in the treatment group at both total and per capita levels.The results of mechanism analysis showed that higher fiscal expenditure and in⁃vestment were important drivers for the economic development in the NKEFAs.The implementation of the policy reduced labor space mismatch,and promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure,which helped the NKEFAs achieve economic development.This arti⁃cle also studied the environmental effects of the policy,taking county-level PM2.5 and forest and grass coverage as its observation met⁃rics.The results showed that the establishment of the NKEFAs helped achieve a win-win situation for both ecological conservation and economic development.This article further examined the differences in policy impact in four different types of ecological function zones:soil and water conservation,water conservation,biodiversity maintenance,and windbreak and sand fixation.The results showed that the implementation of the policy played a role in promoting economic development in all types of ecological function zones,and the impact at total and per capita levels ranged between 4.51%and 7.38%,and 5.45%and 6.48%,respectively.Based on the above conclu⁃sions,this article puts forward policy recommendations,including exploring market mechanisms for ecological products to realize their value and bringing into play the leading and demonstrative role of the central government􀆳s ecological compensation transfer payment funds.