农业保险发展的碳减排作用:效应与机制

Effect and mechanism of agricultural insurance on agricultural carbon emission reduction

农业保险发展能够引导农业经营者改变传统的生产方式,进而影响农业生产中的碳排放行为。首先,基于农业经营规模、种植结构调整和农业技术进步等路径,对发展农业保险的减碳效应进行理论分析;其次,基于2001—2018年中国31个省份的面板数据,利用双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型,对农业保险发展的碳减排作用效果和机制进行实证分析。主要发现是:①总体来看,农业保险发展显著地促进了农业碳排放总量的减少。平均而言,农业保险保费收入每增加100万元、农业从业人员的人均农业保险保费每增加1元和单位农作物播种面积的农业保险保费每增加1元/hm^(2)时,该地区的农业碳排放总量分别实现71 t、364 t和254 t的减排效果。②在异质性分析中,农业保险发展对碳排放总量的削减作用主要体现在东部省份和非粮食主产区省份;而在中、西部省份和粮食主产区的样本中,农业保险发展没有起到推动农业碳排放总量降低的作用。③进一步分析中,农业保险发展对农业碳排放密度和农业碳排放强度的影响效果也是负向的。④在机制分析中,农业经营规模扩大和粮食作物比重增加是农业保险减碳的有效机制;而农业保险发展虽然能够促进农业技术进步,但并不会进而推动农业生产技术的低碳化转型。据此形成的政策含义:一是,可以继续通过补贴推广农业保险,引导农业生产者采用有利于碳减排的规模化经营与作物结构模式;二是,在中、西部地区进一步简化赔付手续、规范定损标准,强化参与农业保险的收益教育,使农业保险产品能够更好地发挥作用;三是,创新和发展绿色农业保险,以引导农业生产者采纳绿色低碳的生产技术。

The development of agricultural insurance can guide agricultural operators to change the traditional mode of production,and then affect the carbon emission behavior in agricultural production.The theme of this paper is the carbon reduction effect and path mechanism of agricultural insurance.First of all,based on the perspective of agricultural scale management,planting structure adjust⁃ment and agricultural technology progress,this paper made a theoretical analysis of the carbon emission reduction effect of the develop⁃ment of agricultural insurance.Secondly,based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2018,this paper made an em⁃pirical analysis on the carbon emission reduction effect and mechanism of agricultural insurance development by using the two-way fixed effect model and the mediation effect model.The main findings were as follows:①Overall,the development of agricultural insurance significantly promoted the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions.On average,for every 1 million yuan more in the total premi⁃um of agricultural insurance,the total agricultural carbon emissions in the region would decrease by 71 tons;for every 1 yuan more in the per capita agricultural insurance premium of agricultural practitioners,the total agricultural carbon emissions in the region would decrease by 364 tons;for every 1 yuan more in the agricultural insurance premium per hectare of crops,the total agricultural carbon emissions in the region would decrease by 254 tons.②In the heterogeneity analysis,the reduction effect of agricultural insurance on to⁃tal carbon emissions was mainly reflected in the eastern provinces and non-main grain producing provinces,but was not significant in the central and western provinces and main grain producing provinces.③Further analysis showed that the development of agricultural insurance was helpful to reduce the density and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions.④In the mechanism analysis,the expansion of agricultural operation scale and the increase of the proportion of grain crops were effective mediating mechanisms;the development of agricultural insurance could promote the progress of agricultural technology,but it would not further promote the low-carbon transfor⁃mation of agricultural production technology.The policy implications are as follows:first,we should continue to promote agricultural in⁃surance through subsidies,and guide agricultural producers to adopt the mode of large-scale operation and crop structure conducive to carbon emission reduction;second,we should simplify the payment procedures,standardize the loss determination standards,and pro⁃mote participation in agricultural insurance through education in the central and western regions,which is conducive to the better per⁃formance of agricultural insurance products;third,under the guidance of innovative green agricultural insurance,agricultural producers should be guided to adopt green and low-carbon production technologies.