中国粮食主产区耕地多功能时空格局及其优化

The Spatio-temporal Pattern and Optimization of Multifunctional Cultivated Land in China’s Major Grain Producing Areas

文章通过构建耕地多功能评价体系,运用熵值法、R/S分析法、耦合协调度模型研究揭示中国粮食主产区2000—2018年耕地多功能时空格局特征、预测演化趋势并进行协调度分区与优化探讨。研究结果表明:研究期内,我国粮食主产区耕地多功能表现为持续下降——波动上升——下降的变化态势且波动幅度较大,其变异系数波动频繁,需要持续完善的政策引导和技术支持;研究区各省份综合指数均值呈东高西低的空间特征,其中,东北地区最高,华北地区居中,西南地区、华中地区的三个省份最低;各省份的Hurst指数均大于0.5,呈显著Hurst现象,说明耕地多功能发展演化上以延续过去变化趋势为主,其中,黑龙江、辽宁可能性最大,湖北可能性最小;各省份耕地多功能协调度发展形势较不理想,协调度指数偏低,且年际间波动较大。研究结果与粮食主产区发展战略定位相符,为指导耕地多功能利用、优化调整与协调发展提供科学依据。

By constructing the multi-functional evaluation system of cultivated land,using entropy method,R/S analysis method and coupling coordination degree model,this paper reveals the characteristics of multi-functional spatio-temporal pattern of cultivated land in China’s major grain producing areas from 2000 to 2018,predicts the evolution trend,and discusses the zoning and optimization of coordination degree.The results show that during the study period,the multifunction of cultivated land in China’s major grain producing areas shows a trend of continuous decline-fluctuation risedecline,and the fluctuation range is large.Its coefficient of variation fluctuates frequently,which needs continuous and perfect policy guidance and technical support;the mean value of the comprehensive index of each province in the study area is high in the East and low in the West.Among them,the Northeast is the highest,northern China is in the middle,and the southwestern and central China are the lowest;the Hurst index of each province is greater than 0.5,showing a significant Hurst phenomenon,indicating that the development and evolution of cultivated land multi-function is mainly to continue the past change trend,among which Heilongjiang and Liaoning are the most likely and Hubei is the least likely;the development situation of multi-functional coordination degree of cultivated land in various provinces is not ideal,the coordination degree index is low,and the inter-annual fluctuation is large.The results are consistent with the development strategic positioning of the major grain producing areas,and provide a scientific basis for guiding the multi-functional utilization,optimal adjustment and coordinated development of cultivated land.