资本账户渐进开放下影响资本外流途径因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Path of Capital Outflow under the Gradual Opening of Capital Account

通过多元回归模型的分析,得出结论造成中国外汇储备异常变动的原因是由于资本项目异常变动。经常项目只能造成中国外汇储备平稳性变动,资本项目中可以自由兑换的贸易融资、商业信贷是造成外汇储备变动的原因,外商直接投资、中国对外直接投资以及证券投资等资本项目的变动并不是导致中国外汇储备变动的原因。表现在净误差和遗漏项目的热钱跨境流动,也是造成中国外汇储备变动的原因。

Through the analysis of multiple regression models,it is concluded that the reason for the abnormal changes in China's foreign exchange reserves is due to the abnormal changes in the capital account.Current accounts can only cause steady changes in China’s foreign exchange reserves.Freely convertible trade financing and commercial credits in capital accounts are responsible for the changes in foreign exchange reserves.Changes in capital accounts such as foreign direct investment,China’s foreign direct investment,and securities investment are not The reasons leading to the changes in China's foreign exchange reserves.The cross-border flow of hot money,manifested in net errors and missing items,is also the cause of changes in China's foreign exchange reserves.