考虑参照价格效应和消费者行为的预售及退货策略

Advance selling strategy and return strategy considering reference price effect and consumers behaviors

生产商通过预售可以提前获取市场需求信息,但由于消费者产品估值的不确定性,生产商可能面临现货期大量退货的风险,制定合理的预售与退货策略成为生产商必须解决的核心问题.鉴于此,运用报童模型和消费者期望效用理论,考虑参照价格效应对消费者购买行为以及生产商预售期定价策略的影响,构建单一预售、预售退货不再出售、预售退货再出售3种策略下的期望利润模型,求解得到相应的最优生产量以及不同退货策略下的退货补偿价格取值范围,并对模型进行对比分析.研究表明:预售退货不再售与退货再售情形下,高价预售与低价预售策略中均存在一个退货补偿价格临界阈值;知情消费者中具有参照价格效应的消费者其比率决定了生产商在预售期的定价策略,且低价预售策略下,预售价格随退货补偿价格与参照价格系数的提高而降低.

Advance selling enables manufacturers to obtain market demand information in advance.However,due to the uncertainty of consumer product valuation,manufacturers are also faced with the risk of a large number of product returns.Using the newsvendor model and the consumer expected utility theory,and considering the influence of reference price effect on consumer purchase behavior and manufacturer’s advance selling pricing strategy,the expected profit model under the three strategies of single advance selling,advance selling return not for sale and advance selling return for sale are constructed,then the optimal production and the value range of return compensation price under different return strategies are obtained.Finally,these models are compared and analyzed.It is found that there is a critical threshold value of return compensation price in the strategy of high price advance selling and low price advance selling.The ratio of informed consumers with reference price effect determines the pricing strategy of manufacturers in the advance selling period,and under a low price pre-sale strategy,the pre-sale price decreases with the increase of return compensation price and reference price coefficient.