双循环视角下粤港澳大湾区与周边地区均衡发展研究

Empirical Study on Balanced Development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Its Surrounding Areas Based on Dual-cycle Strategy

双循环战略是对传统的国际大循环战略的调整,必将对粤港澳大湾区与周边地区均衡发展产生深远影响。“自由贸易导致要素价格均等化”观点难以解释区域收入不均衡现象,它忽略了区际产业关联对贸易的底层作用。本文以空间经济学“中间投入品模型”为框架,构建了“产业关联→区际贸易→区域均衡(收入差距缩小)”理论模型,阐述了“区际产业关联度越高、区域就越均衡”的理论机制。实证结论表明:大湾区与周边地区主导产业关联度低而关联度高的产业却非主导产业,均衡指数与区际产业关联度呈负相关关系,即产业关联度越高,区域就越均衡。因此,在双循环战略下,政府应构建新型晋升锦标赛机制,沿海应建设成为双循环产业链中枢,内陆应积极与沿海主导产业形成高度关联。

The dual-cycle strategy has adjusted the international big-cycle strategy,which is bound to have a far-reaching impact on the balanced development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Its Surrounding Areas.The view of"free trade leads to factor price equalization"is difficult to explain inter-regional income imbalance,because it ignores the basic role of inter-regional industrial correlation on trade.With the framework of the"intermediate input model"of spatial economics,this paper constructs the theoretical model of"industrial linkage→inter-regional trade→regional balance(income gap narrows)",and expounds that the theoretical mechanism of"the higher the inter-regional industrial correlation degree,the more balanced the region".The empirical conclusion shows that the leading industries of GBA and surrounding regions have low correlation,but the industries with high correlation are not leading industries,the inequality index between GBA and surrounding regions is negatively correlated with the inter-regional industrial correlation,that is,the higher the industrial correlation is,the more balanced the region is.Under the dual-cycle strategy,the government should build a composite index promotion tournament mechanism,the coastal areas should be built into international and domestic dual-cycle centers,and the inland areas should form high linkage with the coastal leading industries in the coastal areas.